It’s the most wonderful time of the year…to finally predict the Oscars! It’s still so surreal that 2021 seriously went so light speed fast and it’s getting close to be Valentine’s Day this year. The fact that there are trailers for films of 2022 out now is so surreal, but I am not here to talk about this. I am here to say that I think my Oscar predictions are going to be fully realized and they hopefully could be relevant in the next few months. For what categories I am going to cover, I will be covering the main bulks of the Academy Awards because these are the categories that seem much easier to predict. That means I will not be covering any of the short film categories at all because I have not seen 99.9% of them.
BEST PICTURE
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog (winner)
Tick…Tick…Boom!
West Side Story
I’m going with the safe Producers’ Guild 10 with this one. I think that lately, the huge prize always goes to a film made by a streamer because the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences cannot process the fact that streaming is also considered cinema. They just still think films from non-streaming studios will get the prize. The Best Picture wins ever since Netflix’s inception with making films have been made by a major studio (Searchlight Pictures, Warner Bros.) or an independent studio that finances films (A24, Neon). However, with a much different Academy, I think they might appreciate the slow-burn and thought-provoking feel of Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” whether it is distributed by a streamer or not because this Academy awarded “Nomadland” last year, which is a film that the Academy that awarded enjoyable Oscar-bait like “Green Book” and “The King’s Speech” would not award AT ALL. “Power” could also go a similar way “The King’s Speech” went where it won Best Picture at both the Oscars and the BAFTA’s because the Oscars have an appreciation for the Brits, you know.
BEST DIRECTOR
Drive My Car – Rysuke Hamaguchi
Dune – Denis Villeneuve
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (winner)
Titane – Julia Ducournau
This category is for sure a no brainer. I honestly think that this year, we will see the second consecutive female to win Best Director with Jane Campion. With everyone discovering her films for the first time, I think it is truly her time to be honest. I can see the director’s branch yet again nominate a foreign director this year because it has happened in the past three years in the category. I think if it is one, it would have to be Ryusuke Hamaguchi for “Drive My Car”. I do not see any real threats for Jane Campion whatsoever.
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog (winner)
Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up
Andrew Garfield in Tick…Tick…Boom!
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
I think I’m safe for this one. I am very sorry to say this, but it will be heartbreaking to me when Will Smith, to me the best performance of 2021, loses the Oscar to Benedict Cumberbatch. I think that the Oscars are going to match BAFTA like last year because the Academy truly loves their British actors as well as snubbing amazing black talent where they can be so ignorant toward them. I think people when predicting the Oscars really need to take note that the Oscars have been really matching BAFTA lately. I learned from watching the Oscars, the scenarios where Mark Rylance won over Sly Stallone, Olivia Colman won over Glenn Close, Anthony Hopkins won over the late Chadwick Boseman, and Eddie Redmayne won over Michael Keaton truly show their love for these actors. Cumberbatch in “The Power of the Dog” gives a really good performance in the film to me, but what matters is the Academy’s perspective and they love a very intricate and slow performance similar to how they awarded Frances McDormand last year in “Nomadland”. That being said, be prepared for a Benedict upset at the Oscars.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga in House of Gucci (winner)
Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos
Renate Reinsve in The Worst Person in the World
What a roller coaster this category has been. It’s kind of starting to be last year all over again. I was thinking so long that Kristen Stewart was going to sweep this entire award season as her role as Princess Diana in “Spencer”, but considering that BAFTA and SAG snubbed her, I think she will have to save her Oscar glory for another time. I’m okay with predicting a line-up including a surprise Renate Reinsve nom. I am going with Lady Gaga to win her second Oscar this year for playing Patrizia Reggiani in “House of Gucci”. I am not going with two of the huge frontrunners, Kidman nor Chastain for this award because they did not get nominated for a BAFTA. However, one of the frontrunners, Lady Gaga, did get nominated for BAFTA. I’m also aware that two of my predicted nominees, Alana Haim and Renate Reinsve did also get nominated for BAFTAs, but they are not huge frontrunners like Gaga and Kidman are. There could be that rare scenario where Alana Haim or Renate Reinsve wins the BAFTA and one of them wins the Oscar. The Oscars love copying the BAFTA’s, you know. That’s why I’m predicting Lady Gaga to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robin de Jesus in Tick…Tick…Boom!
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Troy Kotsur in CODA (winner)
Jared Leto in House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
I think I am going to miss maybe two of my predicted actors for this one. This category is a battle between Troy Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee and it probably will be for the rest of the season. I think the one who is going to go on top will be Troy Kotsur’s wonderful performance as Ruby’s father Frank in “CODA”. There is so much passion behind this film and Kotsur’s tweet where he fell off his chair when he got nominated for a BAFTA for this role will get tons of traction. People really love Troy and it will improve the Academy’s respect for diverse talent. Before I get into Best Supporting Actress, yes, this is the acting category where I incorporate a surprise into it. That’s Robin de Jesus in “Tick…Tick…Boom!” for you. Robin De Jesus has no support from the BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, SAG, nor Golden Globes. I think he’s going to be the Marina de Tavira and Laura Dern of this season. In my Twitter feed, I have seen love across the board of how great he is and I think he is terrific in in too.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitriona Balfe in Belfast
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (winner)
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
Ruth Negga in Passing
This is the only acting category that I can say where it is a 100% lock for not just the nominees, but also the winners. There is a slim chance however that Ann Dowd, Cate Blanchett, Marlee Matlin, or Jesse Buckler can slip into the fifth spot. All of my predicted nominees got a lot of support from the Golden Globes, BAFTA’s, and SAG. Ariana DeBose has not missed a single Oscar precursor yet and I think it will be her time to shine. That’s all I gotta say.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos – Aaron Sorkin
Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up – David Sirota and Adam McKay
King Richard – Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson (winner)
There could be a chance that “Mass”, “C’mon C’mon”, or “A Hero” can slide in that fifth spot, but I think all of these films are locked. There is a slight chance that “Belfast” could be the spoiler to win this category (where it COULD foreshadow a Best Picture win too), but it is time for Paul Thomas Anderson to get his overdue win for “Licorice Pizza”. Paul Thomas Anderson’s facial expression when his name, I’m thinking it could be the only Oscar win for “Licorice Pizza”.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Coda – Sian Heder
Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe
Dune – Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, and Denis Villeneuve
The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (winner)
I think I got all of these films except that I might miss out with “Drive My Car” because there is a huge chance it could end up like “Another Round” where it can just only land Director and International Feature Film nominees. If that scenario happens, Joel Coen’s script for “The Tragedy of Macbeth” is going to knock out “Drive My Car” in it’s place. You know how the Academy love their Coens. A “Ballad of Buster Scruggs” could seriously be on the horizon. Like in the Best Director category, this is Jane Campion’s category to win and I am not thinking back on it one bit.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast – Haris Zambarloukos
Dune – Greig Fraser (winner)
Nightmare Alley – Dan Lautsen
The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
I think I will be safe for all of these to be honest because all of those films look so visually striking. The only one that does not have a uniqueness to it’s cinematography is “The Power of the Dog”. In fact, the nomination is probably going to support it’s Best Picture chances. Black-and-white shot enemies “Tragedy of Macbeth” and “Belfast” might torture “Dune”, but Denis’ grand-scale sci-fi epic is going to win almost all of it’s above-the-line/technical Oscars if not all of them. In fact, I think it’s going the same route as “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “Gravity”.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Belfast
Dune (winner)
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
These five films I think will probably be what everyone will be predicting and I’m okay with what I’m going with. Six words. “Dune” is going to win this.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella (winner)
Cyrano
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
I feel very safe about all five of those because these are very Academy-friendly. They occasionally nominate an under-the-radar movie that people do not think will get in that can shock them. I obviously do not think “Dune” is not taking home an Oscar in this category. Jenny Beavan’s getting her third Oscar for “Cruella”, a film that has an entire scene revolving around costumes set to a John McCrea cover of The Stooges’ “I Wanna Be Your Dog”. Jenny Beavan, like Sandy Powell and Milena Canonero, is such a hugely respected costume designer through the eyes of the Academy.
BEST SOUND
Dune (winner)
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place: Part II
West Side Story
I think that I got all five for this category because like the previous category I predicted, it seems like it is very Academy-friendly. “Dune” is so winning this.
BEST FILM EDITING
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune (winner)
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die
I think that I will miss “No Time to Die” and “Don’t Look Up” for this category. I am leaving “The Power of the Dog” out of the category because it might give some small chance for “Belfast” to give it a Best Picture win since getting nominated for Film Editing is important to get a Best Picture win. That does not change my mind of “The Power of the Dog” winning Best Picture. It’s pulling a “Birdman” without a Film Editing nomination no matter what. If for some reason “The Power of the Dog” gets snubbed and punches “Dune” like a drunk man on the street, “Dune” is so winning this.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune (winner)
Ghosbusters: Afterlife
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
I think all of these nominations is something the Academy choose to go to for this category. I’m aware that the last three visual effects winners were not too prominent on computer-generated images. However, I gotta release one big laugh for this one. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha……”Dune” is so winning this. This category is so predictable.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (winner)
House of Gucci
I think I am going to miss out on one of these films and that is probably going to be “House of Gucci”. THIS is one of the very few below-the-line categories where I imagine “Dune” losing to a movie. Gee whiz. I believe that “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” will pull a “Bombshell” where it is a film that is only nominated for acting winning only for Makeup & Hairstyling.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Dune – Hans Zimmer (winner)
The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat
Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood
This is yet again another category where I am going to miss out on a nomination and that is “Parallel Mothers”. Other than that, I feel like it is a line-up that the Academy is going to go with. They love Alexandre Desplat. They love Hans Zimmer. They love Alberto Iglesias. They love Nicholas Britell. They love Jonny Greenwood…oh…you know what I noticed, guys? They are all previous nominees!!! Hans Zimmer is going to win his overdue second Oscar with his chant-packed score with “Dune”. It’s time.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (winner)
I think this seems like the safest nominees for me when it comes to this category. Four out of the five songs have songwriters who are Billboard Hot 100 superstars (Van Morrison, Beyonce, Ariana Grande, and Billie Ellish). I think one of those superstars is going to take the Oscar way home and that name is Billie Ellish for “No Time to Die”. Billie Ellish not only had massive success with her second album “Happier Than Ever”, but also she is headlining a tour later this year.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Procession
The Rescue (winner)
Yes, you heard it here folks. I am not predicting “Summer of Soul” to be in this category. It will be with a group of nobodies that include “Won’t You Be Neighbor?”, “Jane”, “Apollo 11”, and “Dick Johnson is Dead”. They are the ones that are so beloved by critics and audiences, yet the Academy bumps it out and pisses off a lot of people. I feel safe with this category and it is very Academy-friendly. I think directors Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Varsahelyi (“Free Solo”) will take home their second Oscar with “The Rescue”.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Encanto (winner)
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
The Academy, you better not snub “Mitchells”. I dare you. Anyways, I’m going with a safe bet with these films getting in. There is the indie darling, the critical darling, and the three amigos of Disney crowd favorites. As bad as I want a “Mitchells vs. the Machines” upset, “Encanto” is winning for sure because not only is it a MASSIVE hit on Disney+, but also all of it’s singles hit the Billboard Hot 100. The hugest achievement of the Billboard Hot 100 is that “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” hit #1 there. You’re getting it, Madrigal.
and finally…
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Drive My Car (Japan) (winner)
Flee (Denmark)
A Hero (Iran)
The Worst Person in the World (Sweden)
I think this is definitely where the Academy is going with this and I see Paolo Sorrentino getting snubbed where they replace it with an under-the-radar foreign film. As who is winning this, it’s obvious that with me predicting it in Adapted Screenplay and Director, “Drive My Car” is SO winning this.
That is it, guys! Have fun with watching the nominations and if you get set off of a movie the Academy snubs, remember that you may or may not be happy with the Oscars, but it will always be near and dear to your heart! Good luck to all of you guys!
